← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 38% | 42% | 2.56 | value: +7% |
| AZ win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 17' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 41' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 57' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1126.00 | 884.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.34 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1577.52 | 1731.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.14 | -17.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.52 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |