← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sander Van Roekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.94 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 19' | ⚽ | Stefan Nijland · PEC Zwolle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Diederik Boer · PEC Zwolle |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 87' | 🟥 | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 121.00 | 425.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1503.35 | 1561.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.82 | -6.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |