← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 25' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 63' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 67' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | ⚽ | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 730.00 | 1337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1432.77 | 1473.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.69 | 4.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |