β Eredivisie 2017-18 Β· Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 35% | 2.12 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 29% | 41% | 3.35 | value: +38% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | π¨ | Haris VuΔkiΔ Β· FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | π¨ | Mike te Wierik Β· FC Groningen |
| 51' | β½ | Oussama Idrissi Β· FC Groningen |
| 59' | π¨ | Django Warmerdam Β· FC Groningen |
| 68' | π¨ | Peet Bijen Β· FC Twente '65 |
| 88' | π¨ | Oussama Assaidi Β· FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 419.00 | 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1554.65 | 1506.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.31 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |