← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 72% | 80% | 1.36 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.71 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 11% | 7% | 8.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 8' | 🟨 | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 26 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1119.00 | 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1600.95 | 1440.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.18 | -12.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.57 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |