← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 42% | 48% | 2.30 | value: +10% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 30% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Elmo Lieftink · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Hansen · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 479.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1433.37 | 1538.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.25 | 49.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| league points | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |