← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 54% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.03 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 22% | 22% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ashton Philip Shawn Gotz · Roda JC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 15 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1149.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1518.61 | 1387.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.49 | -44.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.35 | -1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |