← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 79% | 87% | 1.24 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 6.77 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 7% | 5% | 13.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟨 | Angeliño · NAC Breda |
| 87' | ⚽ | Thomas Enevoldsen · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 876.00 | 723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1759.32 | 1405.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.73 | -2.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.51 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 62.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 76.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 44.50 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.75 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |