← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 27% | 33% | 3.66 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Tom Boere · FC Twente '65 |
| 18' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | ⚽ | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 412.00 | 809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 3.52 |
| elo | 1481.70 | 1651.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -59.82 | -12.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.86 |
| league points | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |