← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 39% | 41% | 2.53 | value: +3% |
| NAC Breda win | 35% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 60' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 62' | 🟨 | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 77' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Todd Kane · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manu García · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mark Birighitti · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 716.00 | 411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.54 |
| elo | 1392.09 | 1567.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.11 | 12.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.33 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.33 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.36 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |