← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fankaty Dabo · Vitesse |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 404.00 | 465.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.62 |
| elo | 1463.74 | 1589.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.50 | 6.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |