← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 82% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 14% | 8.61 | value: +16% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 5% | 4% | 17.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 76' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erik Bakker · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.13 |
| elo | 1769.01 | 1499.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.36 | 29.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 21.27 | — |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |