← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 38% | 43% | 2.58 | value: +12% |
| FC Groningen win | 36% | 25% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.67 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jesper Drost · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dario Đumić · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 30 |
| 3 | On target | 13 |
| 0 | Corners | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 391.00 | 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.80 |
| elo | 1562.75 | 1658.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.56 | 4.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.88 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.48 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |