← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Jelle van der Heyden · FC Twente '65 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 71' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dejan Trajkovski · FC Twente '65 |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Nijland · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 86.00 | 390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 3.11 |
| elo | 1486.41 | 1506.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.44 | -56.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |