← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | value: +4% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 25% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.72 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 15' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 16' | ⚽ | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 52' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jinty Caenepeel · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟥 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1121.00 | 390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.22 |
| elo | 1540.18 | 1459.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.65 | 33.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |