← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 34% | 3.21 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 66' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Donny Gorter · ADO Den Haag |
| 78' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1302.00 | 451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.84 |
| elo | 1476.89 | 1509.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.56 | -20.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 24.96 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |