← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 37% | 41% | 2.66 | value: +9% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 36% | 30% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Manu García · NAC Breda |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 51' | ⚽ | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 67' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Agyepong · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 694.00 | 967.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.88 |
| elo | 1397.84 | 1389.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.88 | 5.06 |
| eye test v1 | — | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | — | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | — | 52.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | — | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | — | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.41 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | — | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | — | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | — | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |