← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 78% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.18 | value: +3% |
| FC Groningen win | 9% | 6% | 11.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kasper Larsen · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 80.00 | 384.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.47 |
| elo | 1774.81 | 1568.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -68.90 | 39.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.22 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 21.10 | — |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |