← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 69% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.30 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 28' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 28' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 28' | 🟥 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 61' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 70' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 73' | 🟨 | Levi García · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1083.00 | 1295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.27 | 2.69 |
| elo | 1586.05 | 1485.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.51 | 5.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |