← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 56% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.01 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 19% | 17% | 5.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Adil Auassar · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 79' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 73.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 1.62 |
| elo | 1492.98 | 1447.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.18 | 14.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.01 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |