← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 44% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +10% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lars Veldwijk · FC Groningen |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joost van Aken · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 0.00 |
| coach days | 377.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.59 |
| elo | 1571.95 | 1489.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.84 | -36.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |