← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 75% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 6.98 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 7% | 13% | 13.47 | value: +69% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Davinson Sánchez · AFC Ajax |
| 66' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jari Schuurman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordens Peters · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.67 |
| elo | 1451.87 | 1824.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.74 | -32.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 2.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.36 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 9.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 10.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 10.40 |
| squad age | — | 21.60 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |