← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 53% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.08 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 23% | 19% | 4.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 49' | 🟨 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Thanasis Papazoglou · Roda JC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 82' | 🟥 | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.84 |
| elo | 1575.34 | 1439.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.95 | 33.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |