← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +5% |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 28% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.02 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 19' | ⚽ | George Dylan · FC Twente '65 |
| 25' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 29' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Stefan Thesker · FC Groningen |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · FC Groningen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.45 |
| elo | 1558.08 | 1571.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.44 | 24.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 22.66 | 24.74 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |