← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 63% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.89 | value: +20% |
| NEC win | 17% | 15% | 5.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · NEC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · NEC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.25 |
| elo | 1510.32 | 1419.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.68 | -20.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| league points | 43.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |