← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.58 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 19% | 22% | 5.15 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 71' | ⚽ | Darren Maatsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joey Suk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 80' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 81' | 🟨 | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 88' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 89' | ⚽ | Craig Goodwin · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 468.00 | 864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.27 |
| elo | 1351.41 | 1388.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.45 | -29.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.75 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |