← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 84% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.74 | value: +14% |
| Heracles win | 6% | 5% | 15.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Dirk Kuyt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 12' | ⚽ | Dirk Kuyt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jan-Arie van der Heijden · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · Heracles |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dirk Kuyt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Dirk Kuyt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 89' | ⚽ | Peter van Ooijen · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 744.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.94 |
| elo | 1740.38 | 1529.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.70 | 19.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 79.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.30 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| state index | 1.16 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |