← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 25' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 33' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | ⚽ | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1198.00 | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.64 |
| elo | 1466.83 | 1467.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.32 | 57.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |