← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 71% | 67% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.59 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 12% | 15% | 8.10 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 32' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
| 33' | 🟥 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 35' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Mark van der Maarel · AZ |
| 53' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ramon Leeuwin · FC Utrecht |
| 68' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 986.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.52 | 2.37 |
| elo | 1578.64 | 1643.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.39 | 22.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| league points | 49.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.79 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |