← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 43% | 41% | 2.28 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.86 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟥 | Ouasim Bouy · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Stefano Marzo · SC Heerenveen |
| 29' | ⚽ | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 47' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1436.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 2.97 |
| elo | 1469.92 | 1520.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.79 | -12.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.34 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |