← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 38% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 35% | 40% | 2.76 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | ⚽ | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 82' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 857.00 | 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 3.47 |
| elo | 1375.22 | 1554.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.53 | -20.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.41 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |