← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.57 | fair |
| NEC win | 20% | 21% | 4.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 50' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 60' | 🟥 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
| 63' | 🟨 | Arnaut Danjuma · NEC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 88' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Taiwo Awoniyi · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 12.00 | 979.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 5.70 |
| elo | 1422.07 | 1612.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.27 | 3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| league points | 28.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.53 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 23.89 | 25.55 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |