← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 57% | 56% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.27 | value: +9% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 20% | 18% | 4.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 12' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 66' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 71' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1010.00 | 1191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1515.57 | 1480.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.70 | 54.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |