← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 64% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.08 | value: +14% |
| FC Groningen win | 17% | 15% | 5.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1548.80 | 1858.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.90 | 0.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 39.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | — |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.25 |
| state index | 0.53 | 1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |