← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 91% | 91% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 6% | 16.34 | value: +5% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 3% | 3% | 31.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Frenkie de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mateo Cassierra · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | 🟥 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 340.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 4.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.06 |
| elo | 1842.18 | 1352.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.23 | -17.50 |
| eye test v1 | 3.27 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| league points | 75.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.89 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 0.72 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 10.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 12.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 21.20 | — |
| state index | 1.40 | -1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |