← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 53% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 29% | 4.87 | value: +43% |
| Vitesse win | 14% | 17% | 6.87 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 28' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | 723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 5.80 |
| 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.50 |
| elo | 1592.73 | 1758.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.67 | 6.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 48.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.45 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |