← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 64% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.63 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 15% | 13% | 6.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 662.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| elo | 1632.76 | 1434.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.09 | -0.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 53.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.97 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |