← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 45% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | 🟨 | Martin Pusic · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 843.00 | 1177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 2.46 |
| elo | 1403.70 | 1487.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.92 | 36.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.03 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |