← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 33% | 29% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.95 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1850.42 | 1841.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.06 | 2.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 69.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 2.42 |
| squad age | — | 21.45 |
| state index | 1.47 | 1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |