← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
| Heracles win | 23% | 24% | 4.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 55' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 80' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ted Van de Pavert · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1421.00 | 995.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.23 | 2.50 |
| elo | 1496.97 | 1520.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.55 | -5.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 25.06 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |