← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| NEC win | 34% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Janio Bikel · NEC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wojciech Golla · NEC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2122.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.66 |
| elo | 1417.05 | 1426.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.32 | 28.96 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.00 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.50 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |