← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 51% | 55% | 1.92 | value: +6% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jesper Drost · FC Groningen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Darren Maatsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 446.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.16 |
| elo | 1359.54 | 1542.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.81 | 12.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| state index | -1.45 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |