← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 57% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.38 | value: +25% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 20% | 19% | 4.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 65' | ⚽ | Joachim Andersen · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rens Van Eijden · AZ |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · FC Twente '65 |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Peet Bijen · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · FC Twente '65 |
| 86' | 🟥 | Joachim Andersen · FC Twente '65 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 964.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.56 |
| elo | 1584.44 | 1562.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.89 | 1.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| league points | 46.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |