← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 62% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.42 | value: +7% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 324.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 7.80 |
| 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.35 |
| elo | 1512.96 | 1468.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.34 | -10.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| league points | 40.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |