← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 27% | 30% | 3.61 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 19' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ouasim Bouy · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 46' | ⚽ | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alexander Sørloth · FC Groningen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 258.00 | 1415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 4.14 |
| elo | 1528.37 | 1494.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.66 | -11.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |