← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 71% | 65% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.51 | value: +17% |
| FC Utrecht win | 11% | 14% | 8.65 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wout Brama · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 80' | ⚽ | Eljero Elia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 716.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.58 | 1.71 |
| elo | 1750.54 | 1640.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.75 | 29.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| league points | 73.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.77 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |