← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 82% | 78% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 8.18 | value: +44% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 6% | 4% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · SC Heerenveen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 32' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | 🟨 | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 4.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.73 |
| elo | 1853.40 | 1516.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.55 | -45.54 |
| eye test v1 | 2.08 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 72.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 21.65 | — |
| state index | 1.68 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |