← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 65% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.72 | fair |
| NEC win | 14% | 15% | 6.75 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gregor Breinburg · NEC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Janio Bikel · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 257.00 | 2115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.71 |
| elo | 1553.65 | 1425.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.34 | -40.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 45.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 42.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.93 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |