← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +9% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gyliano Van Velzen · Roda JC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 61' | ⚽ | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Martin Milec · Roda JC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 77' | ⚽ | Thomas Verhaar · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 318.00 | 835.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 4.13 |
| elo | 1439.26 | 1415.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.32 | -17.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 25.90 |
| state index | -0.27 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |