← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 45% | 50% | 2.18 | value: +9% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 257.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.51 |
| elo | 1429.24 | 1622.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.08 | 30.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.84 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 25.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |